Although Russia will remain authoritarian for some time to come, Turkey is approaching a historic crossroad: Either authoritarianism will be consolidated or some sort of return to parliamentary democracy will prevail. Turkey and Russia belong, of course, to different religious realms: the one is overwhelmingly Muslim, the other largely Orthodox. Turkey can ensure its territorial integrity only in cooperation with Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Russia and eliminate the threat from the United States. That has started to happen only recently. Turkey has followed a rather different historical trajectory. Their crime? SWP Comments are subject to internal peer review, fact-checking and copy-editing. (1) According to Russian Federal Customs Service data. But, at the same time, their willingness to use military force has seen them sideline EU and Nato powers in the principal conflicts shaping competition for power in the Mediterranean. After Syria and Libya, Russia and Turkey have fought yet another proxy war. State and society of a country / a region, After winning Ankara and Istanbul, the united opposition may – theoretically – repeat its success at the next parliamentary elections and even capture a majority of seats in the Grand National Assembly. With a twist of irony, it is now Russia that may break this alliance. Recently, for instance, Moscow sought US mediation in its oil price dispute with Saudi Arabia. The EU has separate sets of relations with Russia and Turkey. Turkish-Russian joint center to be ready in 2 weeks Anadolu Agency 16:48 31-Dec-20. Opposition parties (CHP, HDP, and the Iyi Party) are relatively strong in Turkey, despite suppression. World An Assertive Turkey Muscles Into Russia’s Backyard Erdogan extended support for Azerbaijan’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, a rare foray into Kremlin’s sphere of influence NAT 9th January 2021. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrive for a news conference at the Kremlin, Moscow, March 5, 2020 (AP pool photo by Pavel Golovkin). At a time when Russia and Turkey are engaged in a wide range of economic and military projects—the South Stream pipeline, joint development of the S … "Relations between Russia and Turkey are self-sustainable and self-sufficient; they don’t depend on someone’s aggressive and hostile actions and whims," Lavrov said on Tuesday. In contrast to Russia, Turkish elections are contested and, as the 2019 local polls demonstrated, the opposition has a chance to win. Likewise, Russia considers Turkey a partner, even though their policies may be at odds, as in Syria and Libya. Still, military tutelage allowed for free and sufficiently fair elections, a robust media, and civil society. He has demonstrated his ability to manipulate the electoral process through various means: e.g. On the contrary, factors such as a highly educated population, a large middle class, as well as the rising intolerance to corruption and state capture may favour democratic development over the long term. These differences bring into question the argument that Turkey and Russia constitute an autocratic bloc. In this tug of war for Turkey, Russia has positioned itself as a more pragmatic, predictable and “delivering” partner than the United States. Turkey’s Relationship with Russia A source of American disbelief about Turkey’s readiness to buy arms from Russia has been the assumption that Turkey and Russia are fated by geography, history, and culture to be adversaries. COVID-19 has put on display its inefficiency and vulnerability. The Union should continue to make critical issues such as the customs union upgrade, visa liberalisation, and financial support for Syrian refugees conditional on concrete steps towards democratisation. But the joy of those who welcomed the release proved short-lived. Yet, putting these two countries into the same basket and formulating policies accordingly is problematic. Opposition parties were co-opted by the Kremlin while opponents, such as oligarchs Boris Berezovsky and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, had their business empires destroyed and assets redistributed to pro-regime tycoons. In Russia, Putin has amended the constitution so as to be eligible to rule for another two six-year terms after 2024. Presidents Putin and Erdoğan inspect a Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet, August 2019. Since Turkey’s controversial acquisition of the S-400 missile system from Russia, the narrative that the EU is facing a twin challenge from the East has been gaining currency in European capitals. (CNN) Turkey and Russia announced a ceasefire in Idlib, Syria's last opposition enclave on Thursday, agreeing to establish a security corridor with joint patrols. Russia has almost no democratic record. Russia’s Rosatom is building Turkey’s first nuclear power station at Akkuyu, at a cost of $25bn. The Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) is funded by Stiftung Mercator and the German Federal Foreign Office. Turkey's relationship with Russia is historically fraught with suspicion and friction. In 2018, the international watchdog Freedom House downgraded Turkey from “partly free” to “not free”. This time it was in the Caucasus, through the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh plateau. (3) See Igor Delanoë, ‘Russia extends Black Sea control’, Le Monde diplomatique, English edition, February 2019. Expectations that he might cede power, step by step, to a successor have evaporated. The US says Russia's S … The construction of the Turkish-Russian joint monitoring center will be completed in two weeks, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said on Dec. 31. Days before, on 11 February, magistrates in the Russian town of Penza sentenced seven young left-wing activists to 6 to 18 years in prison. Turkey worked with Russia to partition parts of northern Syria, removing US forces and spreading extremism. Their core messages converge: first, that strong leadership is essential for bettering ordinary citizens’ lives, delivering economic growth, and ensuring stability; second, that the Motherland, whether Russia or Turkey, is under threat from “foreign” – read Western – and “domestic enemies” sowing disunity to prevent its rise in the international arena. Most read . Yet there appear to be striking parallels throughout the twentieth century in the ways Russians and Turks conceived of the relationship between religion and modernity. Political pluralism resurfaced only during perestroika of the 80s and in the early 90s with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the birth of the Russian Federation opening new opportunities. Russia and Turkey seem to be in agreement to remove us from Ain Issa and its surrounding areas. (Kindle/ Mobi), The Strategic Partnership between Georgia and the United States: Vision Wanted, The Haredim as a Challenge for the Jewish State. In Libya a conflict that the US was once … After a Turkish Air Force fighter jet shot down a Russian Su-24 aircraft violating Turkish airspace near the Syria–Turkey border in November 2015, trust became a casualty of their bilateral relations. Russian Federation, Strategic partnerships, Unlike post-communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as Turkey, elections and democratic institutions turned into a façade, though civil society and, to a lesser degree, media freedoms were not curtailed. It was the Soviet threat that gave birth to the U.S.-Turkey alliance. Many observers likened the so-called Network (Set’) case to Stalin’s show trials. An example of such scenario is the recent 10 month crisis following the shooting down of a Russian jet by Turkey which later on they reconciled. Russia’s Rosatom is building Turkey’s first nuclear power station at Akkuyu, at a cost of $25bn. But what it does suggest is that the similarities Russia and Turkey exhibit are emblematic of all authoritarian or hybrid regimes, rather than a result of Erdoğan borrowing from Putin. Both espouse a vision of a multipolar world free of US hegemony. It was one of the longest series of military conflicts in European history. Turkey continues to expand its deadly drone capabilities, report reveals. The next few years will determine the outcome of the drawn-out struggle for the soul of Turkey. That said, Turkey is quickly approaching a critical crossroad on its turbulent political journey: The country will either consolidate its authoritarian regime or return to democracy. When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Turkey condemned this mildly as the geopolitical landscape had changed in the previous decade and its rivalry with Russia over energy resources had come to an end. NAT 9th January 2021. The Russo-Turkish wars (or Ottoman–Russian wars) were a series of twelve wars fought between the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire between the 16th and 20th centuries. Turkish-Russian joint center to be ready in two weeks: Aliyev BAKU- Anadolu Agency. But the regime has applied the same tactics much more sparingly in western Turkey. Although Russia and Turkey are rivals in several conflicts, including Libya and Syria, Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan seek to maintain good relations. Faced with civic protests in 2011–2, the regime grew more repressive. the opposition, the structure of the economy, nist countries in Central and Eastern Europe, repressive. the state of emergency during the 2017 constitutional referendum or the outbreak of war with the PKK during the November 2015 legislative elections. Russian Foreign Minister Calls on UN to Fill UN Special Representative Post Vacancy. But tensions between the two rose during the conflict, Russia accusing Turkey of deploying Syrian fighters to combat Armenian forces. That has started to happen only recently in Russia. Over the past years, economic stagnation, anti-elite sentiment, and traditionally low levels of trust in public institutions have eroded the regime’s legitimacy. Turkey and Russia are often portrayed as two authoritarian regimes led by strong leaders who favour an omnipotent state at the expense of fundamental freedoms and liberal democratic institutions. 4 Pages, taken back into custody, this time on charges. It opened up its political system, abolishing one-party rule after the Second World War. Moscow also facilitated contacts between Ankara and Damascus on the Kurdish issue on different platforms, including through Algeria." Igor Delanoë is deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow. Though Putin’s regime is resilient, constitutional amendments do show it is concerned about its long-term survival. This Comment reflects the authors’ views. The Turkish opposition has adapted and learnt to compete under the presidential regime: coordinating electoral strategies, fielding joint candidates, setting aside ideological differences, etc. The clash with the Gülen movement – accused of fomenting the July 2016 coup – and the ensuing purges completed the takeover of state bureaucracy. Suat Kınıklıoğlu, SWP Comment 2020/C 24, free” to “not free”. (2) According to Rostourism (Russian Federal Agency for Tourism). While the West was struggling to respond to the crisis, Turkey seemed to distance itself form its allies when it asserted the primacy of the Montreux Convention. Expectations that he might, second, that the Motherland, whether Russia, and Libya. The Turkish electorate is conscious of its power to change governments through elections and is unwilling to relinquish that privilege. In the Turkish version of the events, Russia has essentially accepted, willy-nilly, Turkey as a co-equal in the South Caucasus, which is supposedly part of Moscow's "near abroad." Turkey, Their trade partnership was worth $26.1bn in 2019. and centres on tourism and agriculture: 6.7 million Russians visited Turkey in 2019. and Turkey will be the world’s second largest importer of Russian agro-industrial products in 2020. Constitutional changes in Turkey, in force since 2018, transferred all essential powers to President Erdoğan. It was only in 1906 that the Tsarist Empire adopted a constitution and had its first legislative elections. Then, in the 1996 presidential elections, large-scale manipulation prevented the transfer of power to Gennady Zyuganov, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Kavala was promptly taken back into custody, this time on charges of espionage and links to the failed coup in 2016. May 2020, The report said Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and Jordan were all violating a U.N. arms embargo on Libya by ferrying military equipment and supplies to … mentary elections and even capture a majority of seats in the Grand National Assembly. mayors from the pro-Kurdish HDP, is part of the toolbox. European support for Turkish democracy matters. Read more about: Turkey, Journalists. For both of them, rallying the public behind the flag, with help from loyalist media, became the strategy of choice. Yet, democratisation faltered at two critical junctures. There are, however, two other powers that have benefited from the conflict and the resolution effort: Turkey and Russia. Ankara is aware of this and is acting accordingly. Turkey considers the Kurdish militia YPG, the leading element in the SDF, to be part of the Turkish Kurdish insurgency PKK. The US has issued sanctions against its fellow Nato ally Turkey over its deployment of a Russian-made missile defence system acquired last year. Though, overall validity of the vote was only seriously, etc. Turkey draws road map with Egypt, but will Cairo follow it? Such was the case with the sale of the S-400 to Turkey. That is certainly not how Russia reads the situation, to be sure. It has a relatively more competitive political system shaped by decades of democratic development. Russian polity is destined to remain authori, by concrete measures to support pro-democ, https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/about-swp/ quality-management-for-swp-publications/, State and society of a country / a region, Download Defying expectation… That does not imply that, in contrast to Turkey, the Russian polity is destined to remain authoritarian. Turkish-Russian joint center to be ready in two weeks: Aliyev Hurriyet Daily News 07:24 1-Jan-21. In recent months, Turkish and Russian military patrols on the strategic M4 highway came under fire by a new and opaque militant group called Khattab … In the 2000s, Putin changed the rules, becoming an indispensable arbiter for clans in government: e.g. Turkey has no expansionist goals. As the purchase of S-400 missile system illustrates, there has been an important change in tide, both in U.S.-Turkish and in Turkish-Russian relations. The strength of the opposition, the structure of the economy, and the nature of linkages to the West make it unlikely that Turkey will consolidate an authoritarian system resembling Russia’s. Putin sought to bolster his ratings through assertive foreign policy, opposition to the West, and the appeal to nationalism. Targeted repression tamed the opposition and civil society. Ankara is not coming into Moscow’s geopolitical orbit either. The military was defanged thanks to EU-led reforms and, later on, through a series of highly controversial trials. Being neighbours, these countries have developed many common traits although plenty of differences still remain. Such support should not be only at the discourse level, but must be augmented by concrete measures to support pro-democracy forces in Turkey. Politically, the two countries have a similar reading of world affairs, based on suspicion of and frustration with the West; both have an interest in maintaining a multipolar world order that helps them pursue their respective ambitions. The constitutional changes of2017 handed all power to Erdoğan, substantially downgrading the Grand National Assembly, the ultimate check on executive authority. How Turkey and Russia have gained from conflict For … In dealing with a difficult actor like Turkey, Russia has learned three things. It still has a strong interest in maintaining links with the EU and the US instead of membership in a league of autocrats. Political rights and civil freedoms thrived as never before in the 90s, yet the presidency dominated other branches of government, with Yeltsin being dependent on oligarchs and special interests. Their trade partnership was worth $26.1bn in 2019. and centres on tourism and agriculture: 6.7 million Russians visited Turkey in 2019. and Turkey will be the world’s second largest importer of Russian agro-industrial products in 2020. Russia was demoted back in 2004, at the end of Putin’s first term. NAT 9th January 2021. Turkey and Russia's deepening roles in Libya complicate peace efforts. Putin and Erdoğan have managed to keep conflicts under a lid and maximise overlapping interests. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants Turkey to regain its strategic role in North (...). Ankara remains part of NATO and the EU’s Customs Union. Turkey and Russia have already agreed to set up a joint centre in the region to monitor the Nov. 10 ceasefire, which ended weeks of fighting between Azerbaijan’s troops and … The EU has a high stake in this matter, and thus it needs to take a proactive stance in favour of pro-democracy forces. Turkey is not likely to consolidate as an autocratic system, even though such an outcome cannot be dismissed altogether. Of course, the playing field in Turkey is skewed. Nevertheless, the EU must take a long-term view and recognise that the next few years are critical for Turkey’s ailing democracy. Putin sought to bolster his ratings, have eroded the regime’s legitimacy. What also matters is the electoral culture. Ankara’s assertive foreign policy is an increasing factor in broad geopolitical dispute. According to the preliminary data, the next few days suggest exciting developments in Russian-Turkish relations, which seem to have entered a new path after the air operation that targeted a training center for the militants of the Levant Legion (Faylaq Sham) loyal to Erdogan near the borders with Turkey, which adopts this faction and all the factions in the region. Elites in both countries tend to espouse strong anti-hegemonic instincts, believe in state strength, and often resort to nationalism and religious conservatism to draw a line against the West. Hence, it is critical to understand the gravity of the current time frame and take a pro-active stance in favour of Turkish democracy. Russia was demoted back in 2004, at the end of Putin’s first term. A Turkish Foreign Ministry official claims, “Ain Issa has become a foothold of infiltration, harassment, and terrorist attacks for PKK/YPG. Although there were improprieties in the Ankara election in 2014, the overall validity of the vote was only seriously questioned in the constitutional referendum of April 2017. Russia adopted a new constitution that enhanced the role of the executive. Erdoğan, too, has been rallying the public behind the flag for years: holding mass rallies during the Mavi Marmara crisis, which aimed at breaking Israel’s embargo on Gaza in 2010, labelling Gezi Park protests a foreign conspiracy, blaming the US for the 2016 coup attempt, and intervening in Syria to fight the outlawed PKK. In 1993, President Boris Yeltsin used the armed forces to storm and dissolve the opposition-run legislature. Dimitar Bechev is Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.Suat Kınıklıoğlu is a Fellow at the Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS) at SWP. Rather than an outpost of NATO or an eternal EU membership candidate, Turkey sees itself as an autonomous power whose writ runs from Libya to Syria and from Sudan to the Gulf. Turkey is relatively new to electoral fraud. "Russia and Turkey coordinated their efforts to undermine the SDF, even when the tensions between the two countries had escalated after the shootdown of a Russian Su-24 aircraft. The Blue Stream pipeline, a section of which crosses the Black Sea, has supplied Russian gas to Turkey since 2003; and this January the smaller TurkStream began to supply southern and southeastern Europe via the Turkish port of Kıyıköy. Turkey–Russia relations are currently fragile and transactional. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2020. Nato. oligarchs, the siloviki (security elite), and civilian technocrats. Ties with influential global players such as Russia and China are, according to Erdoğan and his circle, essential to the national interest. The idea that the two countries could be … Their relationship is all about spheres of influence and balances of power, and their ambitions have brought them into conflict from North Africa to the Caspian, via the Levant and the Black Sea. Libyan News Agency (LANA) 17:21 31-Dec-20. Foreign policy of a country / a region, Electoral success propelled Erdoğan to power and ultimately enabled him to eliminate constraints to his rule. Putin and Erdoğan have managed. Their foreign policies have become more militarised in recent years.But this has once again highlighted areas of friction where their traditional spheres of influence overlap. That is not the case in Russia, where only communists have similar reach, yet are co-opted by the Kremlin. However, Russia as well as Turkey have proven flexible in their day-to-day conducting of foreign policy. Turkey and Russia are a like a couple, fighting and making peace time and again. The Kremlin propaganda machine blew this argument out of proportion after Putin’s 2012 return to the presidency, and especially with the seizure of Crimea and the war in Ukraine. For decades, parties of various ideological stripes have vied for votes in competitive elections, bargained, and entered into coalitions to share spoils and governance responsibilities. Turkey and Russia are often portrayed as two authoritarian regimes led by strong leaders who favour an omnipotent state at the expense of fundamental freedoms and liberal democratic institutions. Rapid growth fuelled by high oil prices made Putin’s rule popular. The two countries have built a geoeconomic partnership based on natural gas and nuclear energy projects. For further information on our quality control procedures, please visit the SWP website: https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/about-swp/ quality-management-for-swp-publications/, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Ludwigkirchplatz 3–410719 BerlinTelephone +49 30 880 07-0Fax +49 30 880 07-100www.swp-berlin.orgswp@swp-berlin.org, Dimitar Bechev, That said, all the way until the mid-2000s, the military limited elected politicians’ authority by intervening in decision-making and staging periodic coups. The two countries are jointly monitoring a Russian-mediated truce over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region after a six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan that claimed more than 6,000 lives. Armed forces to storm and dissolve the opposition-run legislature a game changer behind flag! Attacks during the 2017 constitutional referendum or the outbreak of war with the recent agreement for a ceasefire in being... 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